The Gold Spot Price (XAUUSD) has ascended gradually, propelled by the anticipation surrounding the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, scheduled for today. Market expectations are converging on a projected deceleration in job growth, with forecasts pointing towards a reduction from 187,000 jobs added in July to a more modest figure of 170,000 in August.  

This drop poses a pivotal juncture for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, with the last four days witnessing a succession of concerning macroeconomic data emanating from the once formidable Greenback. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, a key gauge of underlying inflation, registered a marginal uptick of 0.1%, elevating the year-on-year figure from 4.1% to 4.2%. Simultaneously, the broader PCE Index exhibited a more pronounced increase, advancing by 0.3%, from 3% to 3.3%. While the PCE data has experienced a modest uptick, they underscore a broader stabilisation. With the imminent release of Non-Farm Payrolls data and PMI data, the Bullion market stands poised on the precipice of an uptrend.  

Technical 

The Gold Spot Price has garnered upward momentum in response to the mounting likelihood of the Federal Reserve adopting a pause in its monetary policy stance. This bullish sentiment manifested in a notable price upswing, with the market establishing resistance at $1,946.91 per ounce, the Golden Ratio. Subsequently, the price action experienced a minor retracement as market participants braced themselves for the release of Non-Farm Payrolls. 

Slowing labour market data may serve as a catalyst for the price action to revisit the $1,946.91 per ounce resistance level. If a breakout from the Golden Ratio occurs, renewed impetus could bolster the Spot Price towards higher resistance levels, supported by a potential crossing of the 50-day moving average over the 100-day moving average, coupled with a retreat from overbought conditions. 

However, a substantial surge in the Non-Farm Payrolls figure could encourage a retracement, potentially pushing the price action back towards the $1,935.13 per ounce support at the 50% level. This retracement could potentially open the door to lower levels of support. 

Summary 

The Gold Spot Price ticked up in anticipation of slowing labour market data. If the NFP figure aligns with expectations, the $1,946.91 per ounce resistance could mark a pivot point for the continuation of an uptrend. However, a notable surge could garner an opposing effect, potentially dragging the Bullion down towards the $1,935.13 per ounce support. 

Sources: TradingView, Trading Economics