The S&P500 Futures (CME: ES) are consolidating rangebound in anticipation of the release of Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) today. The ADP Employment data and Initial Jobless Claims have supported predictions of a drop in NFP from 209K to 200K, but this employment report has been known to shock the markets with its rebellious nature. 

The ADP Employment declined from 455K to 324K, while Initial Jobless Claims increased from 221K to 227K. Although the ADP Employment subdued less than the expected drop to 189K, this decline, paired with a rise in initial jobless claims, exhibits an inherent weakness in the US labour market which could encourage the Fed to hike interest rates as it has awaited support from macroeconomic data.  

Technical 

The S&P500 Futures intersecting with the 50-day moving average ignited downside momentum on the 4H Chart. Support was established at 4,521.25, the 50% level, while major resistance stands at 4,628.75. In anticipation of the NFP release, the index futures are consolidating rangebound between the 4,521.25 support and the 4,546.50 resistance. Demand-side constraints could support a further pullback towards the 50% level, with a drop in NFP possibly encouraging a breakdown. If the 50% level fails to hold, the S&P500 may succumb to lower levels of support at the Golden ratio or the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, respectively. 

However, the NFP release could shock the equity market with an increase. In this case, the index futures could retest the 4,546.50 resistance at the 38.20% Fibonacci level, which could encourage a breakout towards the 4,628.75 major resistance.  

Summary 

The S&P500 Futures edged lower in anticipation of the Non Farm Payrolls release. A decrease could encourage the index futures to break down the 50% level and edge towards the 4,413.50 major support, while an increase may drive upward momentum towards the 4,628.75 major resistance. 

Sources: TradingView, Reuters